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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Sept Nat Gas/Continues to Rebound/Lee

Well as far as fundamentals go I've always found there are far too many variables to accurately quantify. Any single change in their relative importance and you have an entirely different combinations of outcomes. I gave up trying to calculate them all long ago. The Moore Research Seasonal trends in 3 different time frames from 5yr to 15yr to 25 yr are a good 'guide' as to high probabilities when they are all in sync. And that link I posted is just one 19yr trend but does match the multiple year trends well. That then shows that in each different time period measured the trend was duplicated. Much like me saying you are most likely to be camping with the family and on holidays in July/August without really knowing your habits. Odds are that will be correct. And it doesn't mean you wont get caught in a wind storm with driving rain with the family begging to just go home either,lol. But 'odds are the odds' . So odds are you will still choose to camp with the family in this time frame regardless. And its best to wager on high probabilities than volumes of questionable data that if any of it changes the results differ greatly. Might as well flip a coin then. So I have no idea of weather or usage or energy changes or supply reports or anything else including acts of god. All I know for sure is what the odds are. And the odds favour a bounce into August with a selloff after of some magnitude after and the likelihood of another low perhaps lower in early September. Note how I posted about the false breakdown of 4.21 and the comeback the next day and to watch for a breakout. And then there was the breakout over the downtrendline. And now price has cleared 4.40 resistance. I'm not psychic or all that smart Lee. I just posted what the odds were along with the technicals confirming them with the price action on the charts. And so far it's playing out just like the odds and technicals suggested. And I haven't the foggiest of what the hell is going on with Nat Gas or anything else,LOL............