Hi Lee,
Yer right, there wasn't much difference between the two charts, lol...the second one just showed a longer white candlestick as it included yesterday's advance. And yes, I'm drawing a line connecting the tail of the low '09 candlestick through the Nov. '10 low. The tail of this week's candlestick has provided a perfect touch/test off that extended trendline. Obviously NG needs to hold the week's gains by today's close to call it successful, while another positive close next week would provide confirmation.
As for a test of the recent lows, I meant I'm looking for it to come down to possibly revisit this week's low (3.86ish), although yer right in that a retest of the Winter lows (3.70's) can't be ruled out and would be an area of support. Also, if one uses a crayon instead of a fine line to draw the trendline, as many might advocate, then a quick jaunt down to that price would not negate anything either.
Should have a better clue about how this market is shaping up for the fall by the end of next week, after another round of inventory numbers and subsequent price reaction.
Best regards