A disturbance located just NE of the Yucatan Penninsula is now forecast by all reliable models to become at least a tropical storm and possibly a hurricane during then next day or two. A fairly dependable intensity model brings it to Category 1 in 60 hours from this morning, or by late Friday. Track is problematic; the range of motion could be anywhere from the central Texas coast to the Florida panhandle during the next few days. Either way this system does pose a risk to offshore rigs and production platforms and I would not be surprised to see some initial evacuations begin early tomorrow.

Soon to be hurricane Katia is still forecast to remain offshore with ensemble models predicting only a 3/20 chance of an approach towards the US east coast - but its early days yet. Nevertheless, track forecasts have been pretty good with the larger storms this year. Eventually Katia may pose a risk to Nova Scotia or Newfoundland.