Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Dec Crude/ Lee/Gian
In Response To: Re: Dec Crude/ Lee ()

There isn't much difference between a 4ema and 4sma being so short. But my use of the 4ema shows once two closes in a row occur above the 4ema price continues to run up in a rally. Then after two closes below the 4ema price will come back to the 20ema home base. And same in reverse for selloffs. That's it in a nutshell really.

But studies I've done show there is a major character flaw in simple moving averages. To make the point without a 10 page letter just look at a chart with say a 50ema and 50sma. Or even more revealing a 200ema and 200sma. With simple moving averages the data is equal. So you remove day 1 data and add today's data with a simple moving average. With an exponential moving average the front data is weighted so changes with a sharp change in prices. Look at a chart with both on and see how a 50sma and 200sma keep right on rising long after price has reversed back down again sometimes for several weeks. Not so with an ema moving average. But overall the ema moving average will quickly get back into line with the sma moving average and track the same trend but be timely with the price reversal. So this flaw comes up with crossovers even with shorter moving averages. I did a study going back 10years with many short term moving average combinations including the old stand by of 4-9-18 that R.C.Allen developed 50 years ago. The best combination that did not have a fraction of false whipsaws was the 10ema/20ema. The reason sma (simple moving averages) have far more false crossover whipsaw moves is the shorter moving average reverses but the longer moving sma moving average doesn't because it is equally weighted and can't change quickly so gets caught and crossed by the shorter sma moving average. With an EMA moving average combination both averages will move quickly being weighted and will not see the false whipsaw crossovers that you see with simple moving averages. The 4-9 combination is too fast most of the time with either and will both see false whipsaw crossovers. But the ema is still better than the smas even on ultra short times. Where it is really noticed and far more important is with the 9sma/18sma compared to the 10ema/20ema. That's when you'll see the ema moving averages roll up and down without all the false whipsaw crossovers unlike the simple moving averages. Dragging a chart back 10 years and slowly dragging it forward proved this to me with a wide variety of markets. You have to realize simple moving averages were used when traders didn't have computer technology and exponential moving averages at the click of a mouse and software programs. Markets are much faster now. Check out a chart with the 50 and 200 in sma and ema to see what I mean about them both.