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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: March Nat Gas/In the Handbasket/Lee

This 2 closes in a row above the 4ema does work in all time frames but is strongest with the Daily chart and more reliable than intraday like most indicators. And as I said you do need "Two closes in a row" above the 4ema to confirm a rally back to or very close to the falling 20ema before buying. And this does not mean a trend change but only that price is going to rally back to the falling 20ema. Nothing more than that!. Price can clear and perhaps hold above the 20ema on a rally back and that would be a possible trend change but the two closings above the 4ema have nothing to do with that. Only that price is likely to rally back to the 20ema. You can't read too much into it other than that. It also works in an uptrend. And as long as price continues to close above the 4ema the short term uptrend is intact. Just don't 'assume' it means more than that. But I came up with this so traders wouldn't be buying into a plunging market like they do because it looked cheap on the way down. Like NG now. You can use other methods for entry such as buying a higher high tomorrow but if so I would exit the postion unless price closed above the 4ema. Lots of ways to skin the cat. But chasing after a plunging market of any kind one must have an exit strategy. It is still a bear and this is still a countertrend trade.