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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Trades: thoughts on gold/silver/Andrew *PIC*

Both Gold and Silver are doing well especially Gold. It has outperformed most markets for some time. The ratio of Silver to Gold which tells you the strength of the precious metals rally is not impressive though. It has improved but Silver is still not performing typically strong with this rally. Oddly enough while the Gold stocks have been underperforming Gold for years now the Junior Gold stock ETF:GDXJ has been outperforming the Major Gold stock ETF:GDX as well as Gold itself and the SPX. But it had been beaten down to very low levels so a bounce back was overdue. It like many stock groups are getting tired and showing negative divergences on the oscillators. GDXJ is trying to clear and hold above resistance at $30. So far it is the outperforming market. Copper cleared resistance being the late Oct high at 3.77 and then bumped up against far stronger resistance at 3.90 which was the May & August lows that price broke down from. That is an important price to clear. So now price is consolidating between these two important points in a tight range of 3.77 to 3.90. A break of either that must hold will determine direction. Note the negative divergence on the CCI 20 indicator at this recent high. This lower high on a price high suggests a loss of momentum. It does not guarantee a major selloff but can just result in a sideways correction. If it is a sideways correction this would be bullish and confirm the large price pattern being the Ascending Triangle from the Oct lows with its higher lows and flat top. I have overlaid the SPX as Copper and the broad market track each other. Also note the 20ema is above the 50ema for the 1st time since Aug which is a postive. But both the 20ema and 50ema need to clear and hold above the 200ema to be in a defined uptrend. "IF" price can hold in this tight consolidation range or higher they will cross up. So for me right now most prices are in the overbought zone with the CCI 20 above +100 rather than below -100 and rising. I don't chase markets so just trade intraday channels with the 30 minute charts and exit end of day as a rule at this point. Don't know where you are located but if in Canada teachers make very good money here with lots of benefits so is a good career to get into.