Well here is a chart of Heating Oil that is the best guide for heating homes. Your argument about weather determining price on HG could be argued by this chart up until the last 3 years. Since the end of 2008 Heating oil has continued to rally in a normal fashion along with winter and of course the production or lack of it certain times of the year. BUTTTTTTTTTTTTT look at the Nat Gas chart for the last 3 years and see price totally ignore weather and other related events and just roll over and selloff to new lows continuously while Heating Oil and other energy related products rally.(Crude tracks Heating Oil almost identically.) And the weather hasn't been all that warm overall for the last 3 full years either. I'm not a fan of weather predicting price and have always found the charts lead the parade regardless. Smart money knows what the score is on most everything well before it occurs and their actions always show up on a price chart before the news headlines or Hurricanes or storms are predicted that could affect price. That is the one thing they can't hide their footprints from. But that's just what my eyes see and what I believe. Doesn't mean it's correct.