Hi Trades,
I don't argue your point at all except ........

When I mention "short term" on Ng I'm looking at 2, 3 days, a week at most. Not 3 years.

That weekly storage report (supposedly a measure of supply/demand - but it isn't very good at it) can really drive the Market Price "crazy" if off from the industry estimates by only a few Bcf !!! Why ?? Nobody knows what actual consumption is until well after the fact and that EIA report is not very good at it either !!!! So, the short term weather becomes a major factor in the short term projections of consumption that go into the weekly projections from a "multitude of companies" feeding the "Thursday EIA report "frenzy" !!!! And, Price surely does respond, with just a small variance.

Then as the facts continue to come out, price settles into a new level until the "next feeding frenzy" just like a bunch of piranha.

So, no, I don't disagree with your observations at all. Only on the "very short time frame".

If we don't see some Cold weather creep in here in the short term and no further signs of production cutbacks, Ng I think will be heading South again. I leave next week as a "toss up" with the Holidays, H rollover and options expiration. !!!!

I haven't tried to do a "max damage estimate" on the options, but should have tried !!
Thanks, Lee