Hi Gian,
Where have you been hiding !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Don't take this as my "thinking I know the complete answer", but your question (I put it below for reference) has had me stewing for a long time and I never seem to get time to really figure it out.

Some background:
On the Ng contracts - because I have looked at the settlements a few times ...
NGJ12 OI is currently 192,264 contracts
NGK12 OI is currently 245,540 contracts

Most of this gas DOES NOT EXIST !!!!

At expiration I think you will find that about 26,000 contracts are actually delivered !!!!

So what happened !!!????
Producers produce "real gas" and they either sell it directly to an "end consumer" by agreement or they sell it as a futures contract.

Then a "speculator" comes a long and says "it's going to get frigging cold" those home owners are going to need lots of gas to heat their houses, so he buys up those contracts and sells them to the "now needy utility" at a higher price. And on it goes.

When you or I "sell a futures contract" we are doing the same thing - agreeing to sell something we don't have.

And you likely knew all of this --- but this is what bothers me.

The speed at which a rise in the Crude futures price shows up at the gas pump !!!!

Enough here,
Good Luck,
Lee

Gian's comment:
What I can't understand, is how do speculators drive oil prices up? I mean, sure, I know buying a contract has a lifting effect on the markets, however, for every contract a speculator *Buys* don't they have to sell that before the contract expires? Would that offset not drive the price back down? Even if the speculators generate an *Artificial demand*, would that higher price not cause a release of oil from the industry, which would drop oil prices due to excessive supply?