There is certainly a clearly defined channel here - I am also tempted to "tickle the dragon's tail" - but, your comment about fighting the Fed over rides all other considerations. They will do all that is necessary to hold rates down for the reasons you gave. Sort of reminds me of Soros's play on the BP back in 1991 - eventually interest rates will rise - and there have been several warnings about this 30 year bond bubble about to burst - etc... from those who play bonds. So, you take yer pick.
But, if I were a bettin' man - I'd take your bet and start loading the boat - lightly here - around the 1.80 - 2.00 area.
Buttt.... the other 50 pound gorilla is the usual rush to bonds when markets weaken. Just one more damn thing!!!
BTW - have you been watching the Yen lately? A trader bud is starting a short position after tonight when the BOJ anounces their IR policy. It's year end in Japan (March 31) lots of Yen being repatriated to boost balance sheets. Tells me that this happens every year - bottoms in April - then reverses. I'll also be watching this one.
I'M LOOKING FOR A BLOODY TREND TRADE!!!!