Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

May Crude/Silverbear *PIC*

Now here is a delema I'm dealing with presently. See the CCI 20 at previous price lows tag the very oversold -200 and then with a lower price lows have higher CCI readings (pos diverg). Not every time of course as the Dec/Feb and March price lows did not show a higher CCI reading (pos diverg) They only tagged the very oversold zone at -200. Those were very tradable lows just using that BUTTTTTTTTTTTT the April lows did see the same set up I mentioned with lower price lows and a higher CCI reading (pos diverg) just like in May/June/Aug and Oct. Soooooooooo what to do. As always one must default to price support and resistance as that is what is traded. Price must clear $104 once again and hold above that level and preferably clear that short downtrendline to suggest rally time again and a likely rally to a double top at $114. Meanwhile with this pos diverg showing as before I would be very concerned being short even with price bumping resistance at $104. A tight stop above this closing level would be needed due to this indicator. Now price has bounced a bit off its recent price lows and there is no way to quantify 'now much' is enough of a reversal but Crude typically bounces much like it has previously as it is a high beta market. P.S. You are seeing the same bullish pattern on the double short Yen ETF:YCS and a bearish neg diverg with this indicator on the bull Yen ETF:FXY. Much like it showed up on the TBT before it sold off.

Messages In This Thread

May Crude/Silverbear *PIC*
Re: May Crude/Silverbear
Re: May Crude/Silverbear *PIC*