Hi Trades, Limitup,
Thanks for both the Ng and Corn charts !!!
Maybe I'm getting "lazy" but I was going to post back to you and Limitup on the Corn discussion. So, might as well just do it here !!
I think the Corn discussion finally "came together" and I hope it continues !! I would like to dig deeper into whats going on with Cn, u and z over the next couple of weeks until Cn finally rolls up the carpet on LTD of 7/13.
I understand Limitup's comment that there "isn't any/much" old crop corn around to deliver against commitments. Looking at OI it is still 128k + contracts. Sounds a bit high to me, but I don't really know. There must be a way to find the "historical number of contracts delivered" ?? That would give a clue as to what still has to happen. All I can see is that Cn price seems to have stabilized for the moment. [Limitup, you probably have a feel tor how many contracts need to be filled.]
Going forward, won't Cn, Cu price converge as expiration arrives ???
If Cn is really in short supply for delivery and holds it's price then Cu should rise to meet it. Cz would then logically be dragged along with it. THEN, if something happens (like the heat) that kills off a lot of Cz harvest then OFF SHE GOES !!!
OK Guy's, now you can tell me what I just wrote doesn't make any sense !!!!!
Trades I agree with your comments. I have to look at the numbers again as I follow Aug. now since I trade the Emini and there is little liquidity in the Sept. contract at the moment. But if memory is correct, an upside break out would bring price up to about 3.50 and I think that is about all the market will handle.
For some reason the Nuclear plants were "slow" coming back up. Maybe they took advantage of the cleap gas to do additional maintance ??? But they are still more cost effective than burning Ng. The idled coal plants are coming back up for base load. The Ng units, peakers and all were carrying the load to this point burning the cheap gas, but with the arrival of Hot Weather the reliability of the Grid requires the peakers to match the variable load. So, consumption will likely decline and only be offset by the A/C load of Hot Weather. Keep in mind, that Rain, of the form of the Debbie's knocks the crap out of cooling needs.
Will be interesting to see what happens Thursday at 10:30 !!!!