Some reversion to the temperature mean is finally taking place over the US during the third week of August. Still, above average temperatures are expected to persist east of a line drawn from the western tip of lake Superior to western Louisiana. The upper Midwest, the central and northern Plains and the northern Rocky Mountain states should cool off to average conditions. The west should remain warm, with very warm weather expected over the Great Basin. TX and the extreme desert SW should remain near average.

This week brings unsettled weather to much of the east as a huge ridge anchors itself over the four corners region and a succession of impulses dive out of central Canada into a mean trough position over the northeast. This will bring some cooling to the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes States through the week. Tropical Storm Ernesto is in the central Caribbean this morning and ensemble models are split about 50/50 with half taking a weak system due west into Belize toward the end of the week and the other half bringing Ernesto as a hurricane into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.

For most of the week, most of the US will experience elevated temperatures which will continue the pressure on NG supplies and result in a lower than average injection. The big wild card, however, is Ernesto and its eventual track.