The start of the new year features basically near average temperatures everywhere, with the exception of the SE where it will be cooler than normal. There's an anomalous spot of a little milder than normal conditions expected near and in the vicinity of the western Great Lakes due to their elevated water temperatures earlier in the year. Otherwise a very average winter pattern is expected over most of the lower 48 through the first week of 2013. This is a rather radical pattern shift considering the routinely higher than normal temperature through the last several months over the east. If weather plays any role in NG prices, they will rise thru the next week or two.

This week features an active storm track over North America. First, in the west, a strong Pacific storm is running into the Northern Sierra this morning. It will add to the already large snow pack in the region which is a welcome change from the drought of the fall. The upper part of this storm will move quickly southeast and intensify, generating a new low pressure Monday afternoon in southern Colorado, bringing some Christmas morning snow to Denver. The low will continue to deepen as it tracks E thru N Texas and will be rapidly intensifying over Arkansas by Christmas night with rain and thunderstorms over much of the Gulf coast States and wet snow in the Ozarks. The low will track NE from this point and continue to intensify, passing off the eastern seaboard just south of NYC Thursday morning. NYC itself will be in the warmer air but strong wind and very heavy rain can be expected Boxing day, with raw conditions as temps remain in the low 40's. Significant snow is on tap for the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes area, through upstate NY and inland New England, and up in to Maine Wednesday morning thru Thursday evening. Ski resorts in northern NY and New England will welcome this event.

Another storm will hit the Northern Sierra (and Pac NW north of and including San Francisco) Christmas day.

Yet another Colorado low is forecast to form Thursday eve,and looks poised to follow the same track with the same results thru next weekend. This second system will develop in tandem with an upper feature further north,and so snow will be more widespread thru the upper Midwest including Chicago land with storm #2, Friday through Saturday morning.

Merry Christmas to all. Safe travels if you're not staying put.