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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Where's Trades?/Artie/Randolf *LINK*
In Response To: Re: Where's Trades? ()

I've been busy with other 'stuff'. And after a through assessment of the markets over the last year or two I've come to the conclusion that this XXXXXX up financial world is being patched together with government money. This is artificially propping up most markets and causing major distortions. So for most of us that trade markets, you wake up in the morning only to see prices gaping way up or way down, often. Add to that Mario Dragi's bullish comments one day with markets soaring and weeks later he's bearish again you see markets plunging. And of course everyone waiting for Ben Bernanke to say "something/anything" that would suggest slowing the money supply or continuing. Nothing real about today's markets. So with these type of events and government keeping interest rates at extreme lows along with b.s. reports on world events we are not playing with a full deck of cards anymore. Everyone is jumpy with their fingers on the buy/sell buttons. While there has always been government intervention to some degree in the financial markets, the near world crash in 2008 is still keeping the financial world on life support. Bottom line: Trading markets today is much like walking through a land mined area. You only need to step on one land mine to get blown up with the type of price action you see today. Fortunately I have not been hammered "YET" and don't plan to be. This has reduced my trading to a minimum. Charts will still work if you understand them but ''any'' event could easily trash price action at any time on any market and not only 'could it' happen it will happen now and again with most markets. So with reduced trading and no futures trading I have canceled my subscription to Qcharts that was costing me over $2000 per year. SO in 10 years I will have pocketed $20,000. Nice trade! And guaranteed to boot. It's the next best thing to paying off debt. I love guaranteed trades. And "everything" you do in life is a trade of some kind. I still subscribe to Stockcharts that covers most markets including the main futures markets and that only costs me $25 per month which is peanuts. So no more Qcharts from me.

Here is a Stockcharts chart of DX. You can clearly see the bullish Ascending Triangle on the Daily chart of DX. The Weekly chart has the same pattern. Price is breaking above the flat top just over 84. While it has broken out and closed above the line on a Friday close, price must still hold above this resistance point to confirm a valid breakout. This being the case you can see the potential price projection out of the triangle sees price run up to the 89 area which for DX is huge along with the effect on other markets. This is a major test right now of the breakout holding. Note also Gold double bottoming at the April lows as well. Key turning point here for both along with many markets. If DX fails to hold this breakout you could see price sell off to its uptrendline just above 80 which also would be a huge reversal even within a bullish chart pattern. And inverse markets would soar. I would not want to stand in front of this freight train flipping a coin either way. (Option Strangles anyone?) As a Canadian I am still in U.S.$ as I am very bullish the U.S.$ especially going forward from here. It would be nice to see the commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar along with the Aussie dollar really selloff hard. The Aussie dollar is plunging to multi month lows as the chart suggested it would. The Canadian dollar is holding up much better but is still in sell mode. Whether this particular breakout of DX will hold on this 1st breakout is questionable, but so far looks very good as long as it can stay above 84 and even just consolidate for awhile.