Mid June features above average temperature in the SW, the deep South including most of TX and the Gulf coast states, and the SE as far north as DC. Elsewhere it should be near normal except slightly cooler than normal for the northern Plains where wet soils will suppress heating and in the immediate vicinity of the Great Lakes. Looks to be fairly wet from thunderstorms East of a diagonal line drawn from New Orleans Northwest to the Montana-North Dakota-Canada border. Very dry over TX and the rest of the West.

This week features general "troughiness" over the northern tier of States with fairly shallow troughs over the NW and the Great Lakes this morning. By mid week the western trough will be over the Northern plains where it will bring more rain and thunderstorms to an area that doesn't need it, and the eastern trough will be over Maine and lifting out to sea. By the end of the week we see strong ridging along the west coast and a general low amplitude trough over the US east of the front range. This is an ensemble solution (average of 40 model runs) and may conceal more than it reveals. There is currently a weak disturbance off the Yucatan Peninsula. Today is the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Although conditions are generally unfavorable for tropical storms during the next few days, all models do tend to show some development and push a weak system into the NE Gulf of Mexico by mid -week. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely for much of Florida Monday eve through Wednesday. Beyond that, the often reliable European model does show the disturbance crossing the Florida Peninsula and intensifying off the SE seaboard, bringing a glancing blow to Cape Hatteras by the end of the week. We shall see....

Temperature-wise, it will be warmer in the West and cooler in the East this week with the warmest anomalies centered over California and Nevada, and the coolest anomalies centered over the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. NG injections to be reported this Thursday should be near average (around a 90 bcf injection) and on Thursday the 13th they should be a bit above average due to unremarkable temperatures in the East this week. A bearish pattern for NG and i expect prices to continue to drift below $4 in the front running contract.