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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Cotton-- 7-10 Rocks...
In Response To: Cotton-- 7-10 Rocks... ()

Well, the prices slid nicely both thurs and Friday, but on neither day did it fall far enough to reach my resting buy orders. It's now 11 down days in a row with a week to go, plus the end of the week USDA crop report. I'm wondering if there will be a capitulation sell-off in the cards. I'm feeling the luxury of 'letting the profits run' on this trade cause I'm also short beans, meal, corn and hogs. Needless to say, this last week has been one for the books. (My account still isn't large enough, so I couldn't be short crude and the Euro as I wanted to be.)

Depending on Monday's action, I'm giving some thought to buying back those two 80 puts and freeing up the other two 85's. Earlier, I think I posted that, based on my chart analysis and what I see about the world-wide economic conditions, it seemed possible to see cotton much lower than where we are today, like the lower 70's or better.

I really believe that the usage of options in today's markets are the salvation to us small speculators. The big players and commercial interests have the distinct advantages of money and information that we don't have, so we need options as a balancer. There's no way I could have psychologically handled all of the inter day ups and downs had I only futures positions on. What it boils down to is market noise amidst the trend.

Anyway, this week will be very interesting--pre report anticipation, jitters, position squaring etc etc. Frankly, I don't understand just who, other than the Hedgies, are the buyers what with all the bearish yield reports and stories about South American plantings. Watching the flow of orders this week, it seems that in some of the markets, the big players are liquidating losing longs, but not in corn as much. If this $ rise continues, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see limit down days after the Friday report. We'll see.

That's just my opinion. I could be wrong.

Stomper