El Nino and Sugar 11 basic things to know

1. The El Nino causes extreme drought in Australia and Asia , a warmer winter in the Northeast of the United States and major floods in Latin America.

2 . U.S. Climate Prediction Center reports that there is a 65 percent probability that the pattern of warming of the Pacific Ocean will be developed after the month of August. He raised the percentage from 52 percent last month ( " The probability that an El Nino will develop growing "). The Australian Bureau of Meteorology with over 70% probability of occurrence see El Nino in July. The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations instead sees an El Nino year in the middle : " Are there any signs that El Nino is imminent, predicting changes in global climate models in the coming months ."

3 . Kevin Trenberth , an expert meteorologist in the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder , Colorado, said that " The odds are pretty good that we're going to have a remarkable event ."

4 . The 1982-83 El Nino has caused global damage for more than $ 8 billion , including floods in South America, a hurricane in Hawaii and drought or fires from Mexico to Australia. Nearly 2,000 people died.

5 . El Nino of 2009 was mild-to- medium-sized , nonetheless led the conditions under which the sugar has surged 11 up to a maximum of $ 36 . Sugar was the 11 commodities that is most appreciated after El Nino

6 . The Economic Commission for Latin America said after the El Nino of 1997-1998 that Ecuador would need years to recover from the floods that swept away houses, roads , hospitals and schools .

7 . " We're pretty bullish here and we think there is a probability of 95 per cent have at least a weak El Nino event developing in 2014, and a 65 percent probability of seeing at least one event of moderate - force " Todd Crawford, chief scientist at Weather Services International in Andover, Massachusetts. "There are many parallels between the next event and the strong event of 1997. "

8 . Temperatures in the Pacific last month exceeded the level of 1997 , although the predictions made at this time of year are less precise , said Michelle L'Heureux , a meteorologist at the weather center in College Park, Maryland. He added that " in the period between May and June , we begin to get a little ' more sure of what is happening."

9 . In Brazil , heavy rains caused by El Nino may reduce the time available for the sugar harvest and lower the sucrose content of the plants, said Paul Bannister , head of sugar brokerage at Marex Spectron Group in London .

10 . "There is strong consensus among experts about the possibility of evolution of an El Nino event during the summer monsoon season , " reports the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum . "However, it is recognized that there is uncertainty in the intensity of El Nino . There is also a consensus about the possibility of negative impacts of El Nino on the monsoon precipitation in the region. "

11 . The main monsoon season has a distortion drier than normal this season , "said Commodity Weather Group LLC. " Major areas of interest are the areas of sugar cane and soy . "

12 . "El Nino , as well as reducing the sucrose content in cane and hinder the crops, " could increase diseases and pests in the reeds that have already been weakened by drought the previous year * . "

13 . In 1998, El Nino has pushed up the average global temperature to a record high and has been calculated to have done damage for a cost of $ 45 billion , killing about 23,000 people around the world.

The True Study Centre