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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: The Most Important Technical Tenet in Trading

Hi SilverBear & Wayne, Thanks

One brick at a time. It was more observation than work. And w/out Bill Williams helping me to get my head right, I would not have figured it out. It really is the most important tenet in technical analysis -- trading period for me -- that nobody knows.

I also remember something that the poster formerly known as Blind Hog said that put me on the scent. Many moons ago we were having a discussion on here, old Doc from the Pacific N'west, Rumple, The Other Tom, maybe Trades was in on it, a couple of others too, and someone said something about "pattern recognition" and in my ignorance -- I was still a broker -- I referred to "pattern recognition" as something monkeys do -- luckily I had already decided my mindset was suited for the art of chart reading. Blind Hog corrected me by saying "actually "pattern recognition" is what technical analysis is". Woodmayvin told me The Hog was a real big shot in his day. So I googled "pattern recognition" . I could see right away that evolving patterns were at the heart of fractal geometry. I didn't fully understand fractal geometry yet but I had spent enuf time w/ Bill Williams to know that he spoke the truth and that markets along w/ everything else in the Universe were fractal in nature.

Now I can easily see the patterns on the different time dimensions evolving and what they mean. I know well in advance whether the set-up is to sell the next rally or buy the next dip because the higher time frame trends -- patterns -- are easily measured. And I know exactly when the market gives the signal, what my risk / reward is and my odds of success.

It is still trading though, and there is still plenty of greed and fear.

Enough third party people have verified it thru their own tests -- thank you Wayne -- and I've seen it perform in up , down, and sideways markets enuf that I'm certain the theory behind it, and the method itself is sound. And more important that as long as there are markets, the human behavior behind them won't change, therefore the method will keep on humming for those disciplined enuf to ride it.

I'm sure the article will open a door for many of you which can only help. Paul McCartney once said you can never take credit for what comes off the tip of your pen because the magic comes from an outside source and you have no control over when it flows. I believe that is true. I do sleep sounder for it however.