Who knows. Far too much thinking with far too many variables to quantify. Pointless to even guess. Only thing I know for sure is price is approaching the next support level at 2.40. Will look at technicals at that point. If that breaksdown next support is the 162-175 multi year lows. Already the Daily chart of March Nat Gas is a long ways below its falling 20ema at 3.05 that price snaps back to each time along with some oversold indicators. And prices are approaching a long term support area at 2.40 which was the Sept 2009 low. If I was short I'd definitely have a stop loss above present prices.