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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: weather july 25-aug 1st/CJ

Hi Ceejay,
Thanks !! That sure paints a clear picture of your Weather projections !!

Possibly you would consider doing that with your future projections ??

The Nuclear plant status is available every weekday morning. I plan to follow it. Time will tell if a short term impact will be visible ?? It would be sheer speculation as to whether that Salem 2 shutdown had any impact on the Friday 7/15 price bar that went up quite a bit. That one is backed up by Ng.

I know Columbia in Washington is backed up with Hydro. (so won't matter when comes back, but should be soon.)

Ft. Calhoun, Nebraska ?? I assume is Coal back up. (Expected back up in the Fall)

Chrystal River, Florida is likely Ng back up as well as for Comanche Peak 1, Texas likely Ng. I don't think they burn that much coal in Texas. (Both look like they will be down for awhile.)

So, only Salem 2 in NJ would bring a surprise drop in consumption if it suddenly comes back up in the shorter term.

Ng price could "just be tracking that seasonal chart" if you give it a week or 10 days of leeway !!!! I would be very careful, we could see 3.9 yet !!!!

Clearly I would like to make some money on all of this effort but I certainly have a much better understanding of the Ng market and the Electric power industry. So all is not lost, it has been FUN. Maybe I'll even get a better handle on the Weather before it's over !!!!