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Re: tropical update Ng/CeeJay *LINK*

Hi Ceejay,

Here is another estimate of the EIA build that came out at 12.30 est.

Link gives you the full article.


Jul 20, 2011 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --
--Survey estimates 62- bcf storage injection for week ended July 15 ***

--Injection estimates ranged from 51 bcf to 80 bcf

This estimate of 62 Bcf is at top of range of earlier estimate posted.

Even though these numbers are way below last weeks 84 Bcf, these estimates have been floating around since early morning and noon. Price is still down quite a bit, so I suspect the market has already priced this in. Along with the weather and the Nuclear plants coming back up (assuming they are looking) !!

The EIA "dipstick" reading is as of 7/15 so won't reflect the two Nuclear plants coming up, nor the Vermont Yankee fiddle and will only reflect the "power burn" through the 15th as well.

If the Appalachian production is really running high, the Platts/Benteks may not see it all as some of the "plumbing" goes straight to consumers and the build could run higher than expected. The published estimates of today are estimates of what the EIA report will show, not what is expected in the week ahead.

Also, there seems to be a fair amount of gas in storage that may be coming out as price is now up in the middle of the trading range and the owners are weary of paying rent !!! That may push price down a bit but won't impact the build number.

Anyway, tomorrow may be FUN !!!!