Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Seasonal Trend Charts Site/Lee *LINK*

Hi Lee. Yes there is a difference. The Moore Research 3 multi year charts overlaid match up well with this Equity Clock chart (see link) The time frames are a little different between the seasonalcharts.com site but what I think you are seeing in the chart is the different futures contracts being measured over a period of time. I suspect the previous link was tracking futures that showed high contango or backwardation and the others the front month contract. Especially with Nat Gas that is an absolute basket case. Note they all show tops and bottoms at the same time with a 'relative difference' at highs and lows. So on the Equity Clock and Moore Research seasonals the June high is the 'highest high' while the previous site I posted it was a high but a lower high than the April high. And then the same difference at the late August lows that previous site showed a higher low while the other two consistently show a lower low at this time point. What you need to focus on is the rallies to the high points and selloffs to the low points and not be concerned with a higher high or lower low on a seasonal chart as much as a seasonal chart suggests. It's the 'consistent 'trend' that has a history of repeating you are looking for as a tool to give you an edge in trend along with technicals and even fundamentals if they can help you trade it. Put a few things together that have a better than coin flip odds and you have an edge in the trade. And seasonals have a solid track record that serve as a good guide when trending. And they don't always trend and have periods of sideways choppiness. But I go by the Moore Research seasonal trend charts as that's what they do for a living along with a ton of other trading research reports etc. Any book you read with a commodity chart will likely have their name on the bottom of the chart. So keep that in mind regarding highs and lows and the trend when looking at NG or other extremely high volatile commodities. Most wont be as dramatic as NG.