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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Seasonal Trend Charts Site/Lee/Trades

Hi Trades,
Thanks !!!

I was looking mainly at the "shape" of the curve and relative positions in time, not trying to compare the high/low points of the curve.

Right now, comparing the Equity Clock curve to the Daily Ng chart from Mar. to date, it doesn't take much "imagination" to call them "nearly identical" when it comes to the "rises/falls, peaks/valleys" with respect to time.

If the seasonal chart is "going to prevail" there is a lot of "down side" left in the Ng market through August !!

So far "price" is charting out just as you would expect, including tracking the seasonal pretty well.

I have tried to be "completely fair and unbiased" on tracking this market trying to identify anything/event that shows up in price (sort of unexpectedly, if you will). So far I have found nothing. The market is "just doing" what the charts suggest it should.

Even this several weeks of "extreme heat" have had no effect. The only thing that I might suggest is that Ng was sold off from storage into the "high heat demand" around 7/18,19 and the market did not go quite as high as it might otherwise have.

I had an interesting conversation with a man from a fairly large Southeastern Power Generation company with a wide cross section of Nuclear, Ng and Coal fired plants. I'll come back to that in another post. But was very interesting. Bottom line though was that price of Ng is now pretty much at a point where they would be burning Ng rather than coal if this heat did not have them "cranking" everything they had at the moment to meet the current high power demand.

Thanks, Lee