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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Seasonal Trend Charts Site/Lee/Trades *PIC*

HI Lee,

Hey, sorry you were not able to view my chart...I'm using a png file for uploading to the net...its a common file used...but since you can see it when Wayne posted it...it might be just a fluke...

Here below is a chart of NG with a 5 year (blue) and 10 year (red) seasonal chart that is matched up...

The charts depict behavior on a relative basis; the actual prices are not forecast-ed, just the relative position of the market versus its contract high and low. On the seasonal charts, the high is depicted as 1.0, or 100%, while the low is depicted as 0.0, or 0%. All similar trading days are lined up for X number of years and are analyzed in terms of where each day falls as a percentage of the highest and lowest price of either the last 12 months or the life of the contract for each specific contract. These prices are then averaged and depicted in the indicator window. When the trend line is at 100% or 1.0, it indicates where the contract has, on average, been at its highest value for a specified time range and scale period.

When the trend line is at 0% or 0.0, it indicates where the contract has, on average, been at its lowest value for the specified time range and scale period. The averages use data from all previous years and are not affected by the current year’s trend.

If you look at the chart...NG is lagging just a tad...it should be in the 3's according to the seasonal depicted here i.e. we should already be at contract lows.

Best of good trades, Spike

PS if you get a box with a red X for the chart...try right clicking in the box and scroll down to where it says View Image