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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: cashed in my Dec. si. call and reved/Hal/Ronbo

Hi Ronbo,

On Natty,
Yes, we got the expected "bounce" today, maybe a bit more than I expected.

May pay to be careful. Recent thoughts project a build of 70 Bcf or so and temps have been moderating. I recognize the "dip stick reading" on storage was taken on Fri. 8/19 but everyone also knows Irene is headed up along the East coast with a lot of rain (cooling) So, real demand is going to be way down and price should drop, independent of Irene unless the EIA comes out with another "screwball" number like they did 2 weeks back.

BUTTT, keep in mind also, the EIA had personnel cutbacks, mentioned 2 weeks ago, when that low (maybe bogus 25 build) came out !! Remember, the EIA is a gov't agency. I recall spending some time at NASA in Houston some time ago and one thing you learned "early on" was "NOT TO BE WALKING THE WRONG WAY" in the corridor at 4:30, else you get "trampled" !!!

So, I guess caution is the watch word. A low number the market will bounce, but "sanity will quickly prevail" as it did 2 weeks ago !!!

A build of 70 or so as expected, the market should drop. I think there is a week or two of "down side" left in the Ng market. If I am wrong, plenty of time to get long, but no reason to "stand on the RR tracks" !!!

Have fun over there,