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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: SnP ??/Lee
In Response To: SnP ??/Trades ()

The major indicators that show oversold market conditions recently reached its most extreme oversold condition since March/09 or late 2008. Everyone and his dog is short with puts. Just not going to happen with everyone on that side of the boat. My old favourite saying is "When it's obvious it's obviously wrong". The recent selloff was a Fib 38.2% retracement of the entire bull market from Mar/09. Last summer's selloff was also a Fib 38.2% retracement of the bull run up from Mar/09 as well. Very typical retracement points in the typical summer/fall period. But price has rebounded from 1101 or 1120 close on Aug 8th-9th to 1208 rally high which was the top of the "W"pattern. So today the SPX closed at 1210 which is the critical point needed to be cleared to expect a rally to the 1265 -1280 area. Not enough to confirm a valid breakout by poking its nose above critical resistance. But the likelihood of a further rally is high regardless with such extreme bearish sentiment. After the 'bounce back' to the 1260-1280 area 'if it occurs' that should be it before it sells off again and retests the 1100-1120 area again. "IF" that test fails it will be crash and burn time again. If it holds and takes off this SPX could run well through the winter which is its bullish period seasonally. And this is a pre-election year which historically has an almost perfect track record of being bullish including into the election year. But the market will tell the tale best not me. That is just what would be 'typical' that's all. So far this 1101 to 1208 high volume range is still intact with price at the top of the range. A clear break above 1208 would suggest much further on the upside.