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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Natural gas/Ronbo/All
In Response To: Re: Natural gas ()

Hi Ronbo,
I clearly would like to agree with you on this, but .......

On a 4 year continuous chart there is barely any observable difference between the long term support at about 3.25 going back to 4/27/2008 on both the weekly and daily. Price is now very close to tagging that.

I would like to think that the market will turn on that support line as you seem to be suggesting.

What has bothered me for several weeks when I mentioned that I would no longer short Ng was the fact that production was still staying high, demand low/flat and I just plain did not "trust things".

There are many S/D watchers including the EIA and none of them seem to be able to get it right most of the time !!! If you understand a little bit about how the "storage works" and the major power plants "buy their gas" you can see the market is "ripe for the volatility" we see.

Yes, it will all eventually show up on the chart, And a "so called expert chartist" wanting to just "call a number" can hardly go wrong in a declining market throwing out "3.25" or the spike low of 2.425 on 8/21/2009 !!!

So Ronbo, I hope your observation is correct. I have been "itching" to go long for several weeks but the CHK's etc. just keep dragging up all of that old decaying dinosaur meat !! If CJ and Stargazer manage to make it "colder" maybe something will happen on the demand side, but it sure doesn't look like our economy is going to do anything for industrial demand.

Just some thoughts,