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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Natural gas/Ronbo *LINK* *PIC*
In Response To: Re: Natural gas ()

Hey Ronbo. Hope things are going well for you. I thought maybe you found a new love by now in the U.S.S.R. that appreciates an all American guy that lives in California. Just stop telling them the streets are lined with Gold. (Or Silver) As far as Nat Gas goes it continues to hit new contract lows without a pause. The RSI 21 has hit the very oversold 30 zone again which doesn't happen often. Price tends to bounce 20 cents or so each time when that occurs typically but with this bearish trend is no guarantee. I realize every November NG traders start jumping up and down because of the cold weather 'assuming' Nat Gas is going to the moon. This link to the long term seasonal trends clearly shows this just isn't the case. Just like any futures contract these companies do plan ahead and it is no surprise to them that cold weather is on the way. But long term seasonals do show a bounce from late Nov to mid Dec is typical. The last couple of years has seen a 35 cent bounce and before that there have been these time periods of no bounce at all. If the trend was up there would be good odds of a strong bounce but like they say the trend is your friend until the end. So with the RSI 21 tagging 30 and the last 1/2 of Nov approaching, odds do favour a dead cat bounce. But from what price point is the question. If it starts another 20 cents lower from here it wouldn't be a good trade to be buying now. A dirt cheap option (if one exists) might be a good trade. This is Jan Nat Gas and if buying options would need to be a much later contract than Jan that sees those options expire in Dec. Good luck with the trade.
See LINK on seasonal chart bottom left.