Post me a link to this, I would like to read it.
Dom Chirichella, an analyst with Energy Management Institute.
I am not chasing you on the Wx thoughts, but I do chase you, as you know, on the ALL word !!!
- As I understand it, Wx is your profession and area of expertise (as for CeeJay), not mine.
Look at a Daily chart from say June to say seven days ago. That decline in price was NOT ALL Wx related
Yes, in there, some bumps were no doubt related to high demand periods of heat (A/C driven Electric Power Loads) or storms threatening supplies. But the overall, longer term decline in the market came for many reasons beyond the weather.
I clearly allow that the "trading behavior" around the Thursday EIA report is what really got me going on this. Then I discovered that it is basically a "WAG - Wild Ass Guess" - that no one, including the EIA, really has a "handle" on supply/demand in the Ng marketplace. Yet the market players rely on it and (similar market analysis by for fee firms) to make their buying decisions.
I am suspect of today's EIA report with the nominal extraction. I could easily conclude it was intended to give price a little boost. [Look at the recent EIA revisions.]
But then, some storage operators started refusing injections for a number of reasons and that gas was pushed onto the spot market, else price may be even higher than it currently is.
So, it is a complicated equation, but I clearly agree that going forward the cold weather will be the big demand driver for the shorter term. Look back a little further on the Daily chart, quite a bit happened with Price from Dec. to June. If you can show me that those price swings were ALL Wx driven, I will listen ....but I have my doubts, and that is to the use of the ALL word !!!
Ng is a "fascinating market" but I'm not about to "try to tell you" what the 12/2 bar will look like when it is over !!! Right now, it has held on to most of today's move up, maybe it will stick/continue ??