Not throwing darts, but I can read and do research.
Dominick Chirichella build for 8/25 was 63, EIA came in at 73. Do the percentages. No more of an Ng Guru than any one else out there !!!!
Maybe the guy is a good and a worthwhile read, but don't try to hold me at "ransom" with some "unsupported comments" from a newsletter that I had never heard of with out an inkling of rational as to why one should hang their hat on anything he says let alone their "piggy bank" !!!!
I write what I write on this Forum hopefully making it clear that it is my opinion based on what I have been able to learn/discover with the hope that others will help build on it.
The post/comment that Dominick Chirichella said it's "All in the weather now" without any further comment/support or a path to look further leaves me at a loss - looking for credibility.
I clearly do not know you, (nor you me, I assume, as we have not been communicating that long) so we have not built the kind of "Credibility" that for example exists with Trades. If Trades were to say "Lee Don't do it" I would NOT (immediately). Any discussion necessary would follow.
So, this post may TICK you off, but this activity is not a kids sandbox game, it is SERIOUS.
A simple one line comment from you that "It's ALL in the Weather" is simply not true. It is very important as we go forward at this time, but not the whole story.
That approx. $1500 on a single Ng contract from the recent lows to present could disappear in a heartbeat if production doesn't continue to decline and more storage operators refuse injections. Many are at levels that are becoming unprofitable and will continue to sell on the spot market rather than cut off their cash flow. There is a lot more going on than just the Weather. But no argument the colder it gets, the higher the demand and they may be able to bring things into better balance such that price can rise a bit.
But, be sure, Wx is NOT the only term in the equation, but a big one !!!