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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Sept Nat Gas/ Still not breaking down. *PIC*

Sept Nat Gas remains above its breakout which is above the 1 year downtrendline. This nose poke above resistance levels that backed off did clear away a lot of shorts. Price has found support at the 2.71 price level. A close below this price would suggest a failure to breakout and start an uptrend of significance. Re Clearing 2.91 would be bullish short term and clearing 3.15 would strongly suggest a significant run up to higher levels. Despite being in a bear market NG is base building and is making a stand over the last few months. Bear markets typically have strong counter trend rallies that often retrace a Fib 38.2% to 50% retracement of the most recent downtrend and can even run up to the 61.8% retracement pt. Re-clearing 2.91 will be easier to accomplish now and a short covering rally alone could drive prices sharply higher on some b.s. story that everyone loves to react to. Always one of those scary stories to jump up and down about and get traders "reacting" with the markets. That is the one thing that is a guarantee. The end is always near. Meanwhile price does have to hold above 2.71 to have any hope of a significant rally in the short term. This is still a bear market and until proven otherwise can only expect countertrend rallies of various strengths.