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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Sept Nat Gas/ Still not breaking down/Lee *PIC*

I'm doing ok. Been working on myself for some months now. Figure its better than working on the market that just won't listen. I've lost 25lb and am now down to my ideal weight. And I've been walking about 20km every weekend and walking up my local mountain a few times a week as well for the cardio workout. And I just bought a bike and that has been tough riding again as I have a couple of damaged hip flexor muscles that gets very tested with bike riding more so than anything else. That will take time to 'fix' with more riding. Better than wasting my time with some physio b.s. that doesn't work. At least I've found something that really works on them. Just have to watch those hills and not totally trash them while trying to build them up again. Pay Shunts (a medical term) is needed here that I am very short of.

But here is Sept NG. You can see the signficance of 2.71 now better than ever. Price has shown respect for this number for some time now as resistance and support. Now that price has cleared that downtrendline after a successful test of the 2.22 double bottom you can see 2.71 serving as support. Plus you can see 2.91 as resistance along with 3.15. Price is now trapped in a very tight range between 2.71 and 2.91. This must hold or kiss any significant rally good bye (not good buy). I suspect it will hold as NG is way overdue for a bear market rally of significance and should typically rally to the Fib 38.2% to 50% retracment point of the last downtrend. The 4-5 month pattern is a bullish one even in a bear market and looks good for a breakout. Believe it or not the biggest rallies tend to be in bear markets not bull markets. After a long bear trend and everyone and his dog throwing in the towel on "obvious" negative fundamentals everyone trading it finally believes the bear story and shorts the crap out of it. Then at some point they are all on one side of the boat heavily short and over she goes on some b.s. story that blows the bears out of the water. Happens with most any bear market. But it is still a counter trend trade which is rowing upstream. That's what these beedie little eyes see and what the chart is whispering in my ear and saying in any case, rightly or wrongly.