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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Weather November 19-26th
In Response To: (Message Deleted by Poster) ()

A somewhat quieter regime is in store for the middle of November as the storm track settles down a bit and the general flow becomes more west-to-east over most of the lower 48. In the absence of big cold fronts out of NW Canada, temperatures moderate with the greater part of the lower 48 above average, especially the upper Midwest and central plains. The exception is the SE where temperatures will remain near average, and Florida, where they will definitely be cooler than average. One of the main models has another northeaster developing along the east coast next weekend, but this view is not shared by the other main models, so i give it a low probability.

This week is a lot more active, with a very strong cold front extending from NE Minnesota this morning south to central Texas. In general, west of the front temperatures are well below normal. In the vicinity of and within several hundred miles to the east of the front, temperatures are well above average and SW winds are very strong. Further east, a cool morning has given way to a pleasant afternoon, today.

This week the cold front should move progressively east, but trail and slow a bit over the gulf coast states. By Tuesday evening it should extend from just offshore the Maine coast , down the seaboard and then curve back and stall in a line from central North Carolina to New Orleans, and then slowly dissipate. This will be a slow, wet front with plenty of rainfall for most of the east through the next few days. A tropical storm is likely to form early this week NE of PR but will avoid the US mainland altogether.

So the west will start of very cold but temperatures will gradually moderate thru the week, and the east will start of mild to very warm, but cool off dramatically with the passage of the front, for a cold second half of the week. This week's NG injections should be near or a little below normal; probably 5-10 bcf with a possibility of zero depending on how much power production was affected by the Nor'easter that struck the NE last week.