There is an old tendency that we all have that is very harmful. We miss the start of a large rally or decline and then begin to try to profit from a counter trend reaction. Just as you are thinking. Whether, in this instance, you are right or wrong, I have never found it to be a sound practice. The worst thing that could happen with this trade is if you made money. Then, you would never stop trying it again, even if you began to lose.

Trade with the trend.