That is correct thinking.

There was a guy around here, years ago, (where I live) named Welles Wilder. He began offering "trading methods" at steep pricing. A guy I knew sold him on advertising HIS idea. (I know WW lived around here because I once saw a Mercedes 6.9 advertised by him in a nearby paper.)

They all began: "Recently an old trader, with years of experience, dropped by my office to discuss a method he uses that is phenomenally simple and John says has made him more money (it hadn't) than..blah, blah, blah." So, for $2,000 or $10,000 they would let you in on the "secret" to riches.

WW offered many of these products, one after another. A machine cranking them out.

WW made his name with some indicators (I've forgotten now) that people said were pretty good. I'm only commenting on supposed great results of the slew of products he handled for others..

The guy I knew couldn't trade his way out of a paper bag. And yet got WW to "feature" his system in an ad. This was back in the 80's sometime.

So, you're right to be skeptical. I've bought a few and doggone it if the minute I try to use them they mysteriously fail to work.

How could that be???? Hahahaha.

These markets are similar to going to the carnival or fairgrounds. Realize YOU are the mark and while one or two get a Giant Panda for their girl, most go home empty-handed (as will the winner in this year when he plays next year). There is only so much money that is available to all traders each day. The banks make a profit almost every day....the HFT algo machines skim a lot....the insiders....and everyone else is way ahead of the regular Joe. Hardly any money left unless you become like the machines.......only then will it all make sense. The machines do not MAKE the markets, they ENFORCE the markets. They follow number sequences and functions. You should always be able to find out "why" if you are looking in the right places and recognize the signs. Regardless, there are always Bozo clownish moves for the entertainment of those plugged in. lol.

Become like an Indian moving through the woods .... noticing everything you can ... if you notice a sign... write it down and run it through some years of market movement to see if you could get a return.

NEVER risk more than what you can write off in a year (around $3,000). If, your way of trading is going to succeed, you can start with almost nothing and the result will be the same as if you went in BIG. It's actually more fun, too.

Try not to take an option trade unless you see a possibility of a 10X return. That is, search carefully for volatility. It is your friend. Volatility can be a function of time OR price.

At some point in time, futures will become too dangerous for many of us to safely trade. I am using 3 options on currencies to equal risk on a futures contract as a test. Seems to work well, so far. The difference is, I KNOW my risk on the options. Right now, this knowledge is not necessary, but may be if the markets go back to the Wild West times as they have in past trading cycles.

These are just thoughts of mine. They may be false and have no value. Never trust anybody when involved with leveraged money. Including me.

There is one thing I found when I was first starting out in the early 70's that can be looked at for amusement. Maybe some can build with this "finding".......

The intersections of trend lines create an "interval" that results in a trend change. I have little use for common trend lines except for this. I never really pursued this method but it's free and would be an interesting tool for your toolbox if you can put it to good use....and I've been interested in time ever since.

A very great New Year to you all.

:-)

:-)