Thoughts on Crude - rant for the day.
Back in the days when Crude was trading above $ 100.00 (remember those days?), many thought that the economy would be firing on all cylinders if Oil collapsed down to the $ 25.00 - $ 35.00 range. We would be back to full employment, industry would be humming, and the profit margins would soar once the major cost of production disappeared.
Well... guess what? WE'RE HERE!!!
Now, in Alberta, we have had wide devastation in the Oil patch. Don't forget that Canadian Crude is priced much lower than WTIC - so that added to the pain. The industry is on it's knees with no sign of a return to the good old days for some time to come. A number of smaller companies have closed their doors or have been assimilated by the larger producers. If this trend continues, the industry will collapse. Then, guess what? The Saudis start to yank our chain again - and it's back to another energy crisis. No matter how you look at it - The Royal House of Saud controls the international Oil markets.
The Alberta economy, and the Canadian economy rely on a higher price to sustain budgets. The loss of tax revenue, and royalty revenue has put a severe strain on our ability to service our social programs. Our currency has collapsed into the toilet - and our cost for imported goods (mainly from the US) has soared. So, where will it all end?
It has become a case of .."careful what you wish for.....".
Traders talk about the "super cycle" in commodities. How much longer do we need to wait?
The almighty USD is KING! All markets are dependent on the USD. Nobody knows how high it will go - when it will break. This is such a one sided trade right now - that it is beyond doubt that it will continue to climb trashing all of the comms in it's path.
Canadians who normally leave for the south around this time of year are having second thoughts. I am hearing stories from friends in Florida that they are losing 40% on the exchange. They are returning to face the bitter cold of the north.
The Canadian Loonie is a commodity currency - heavily dependent upon the price of Oil, Nat Gas... so if they continue to fall - there will be fewer of us heading south for the winter.
...enough for now - I've ranted long enough.. but is struck me as rather odd that as the price of Oil fell - we were not walking through the gardens of milk and honey... and it pisses me off that we are once again being herded like sheep by the Saudis - to be released at their pleasure.
As one anal -yst once stated - "the cure for lower prices is.... lower prices. We're waiting.....
Enough!