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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Thoughts on Crude - rant for the day.

Back about 1984 I went out to Texas to give a try at the oil business. Oil was setting records in price 40'sh bucks a barrel. looked like an interesting price to make a living with. About three years later...give or take...pop. 10 bucks a barrel....maybe 8. can't remember. I told everyone it would only take five years to get back to 40'ish per barrel. That was, unbeknownst to me, my first bad oil trade. Sure enough about five years later pop 40'ish but it was short lived. Right back down and then it took 13-15 years to get back to forty. I had a friend who stayed in the patch, gathering up small pieces of wells. When the price rocketed he was chitting in tall cotton. Now...not so much but I'm sure he saved well and he's still getting royalty checks. Some is better than none.

This stuff goes up and down. The patch was flush for the last decade...the rest of the economy...ehh...not so much. Now, with oil prices lower...the money saved on petrol will be spent other places...this will benefit other parts of the economy. If your economy is heavily based on oil prices...suck-o-rama for the patch and economies dependent on oil production.

Price of anything goes high enough and everybody and their brothers goes after it creating, after a while, a glut which drives the price back down. There's a glut of oil because of the new methods of production. Yes, the Saudi's are playing a game...trying to drive the price down to rid the market of the new technology oil because some of that is dependent on higher prices. That will work for exactly as long as the price of oil gets back high enough to justify the new tech oil again...then back on the market it will come...glut in oil and back down she goes. That's just the way it works.

"The Alberta economy, and the Canadian economy rely on a higher price to sustain budgets. The loss of tax revenue, and royalty revenue has put a severe strain on our ability to service our social programs." You'll have to pardon my glee with this situation. This is the best thing that could happen to you people up there. It would be the best thing to happen to us down here, too. Socialistic governments and policies are the bane of any economy that wishes to participate in the free capitalistic economy. For the sake of the Canadian people, I hope all your socialist programs collapse and every body gets to get out and become employed. I hope the same for us as well.

Sorry Y'all can't come down for a visit.