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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Sept Nat Gas/Critical Point/Trades

Hi Trades,
Thanks for the chart/comments.

I was stewing on that earlier. I expect Ng to bounce up for the reasons mentioned in last post, but those comments
were really directed toward what I envision coming this Thursday.

It looks like you are showing "today's bar" on your chart ?? It has bounced up a couple of cents tonight but
this is still Asian trade but Japan does have to make up for those Nuclear plants that are down.

Wayne just slapped my wrists, on my last comments. Yes, I did re-state the "obvious" but it should be
clear that lately I have been concentrating on gaining a better understanding of just how this
market works/functions !!!

So, I have "put on the hat of owning a couple of gas fired power plants" and try to get a handle
on what they are looking at !!!

There is a lot of "expensive" industry data out there, but much of it does boil down to 3 things
for the short term view.
1 - that Thursday storage report, which is the only real measure of Supply/Demand for the
shorter term.
2 - the Weather, they pay a lot of attention to that since the power burn for cooling in
the summer is substantial. Yes, you cannot go off half cocked on weather expectations, but
if one really understands what is happening on the consumption side it is important.
3 - Nuclear plant status. A couple of nuclear plants coming on/off line really change the
consumption picture. [But, don't pay attention to the "wrong" plant !! The one down in
Washington state for re-fueling is backed up by the hydro (high snowfall) and when it comes
back up shortly it won't make a "piddle" in the Ng market.

Then, a few more:
4 - Pipeline performance. An unexpected serious outage can really throw a monkey wrench
into things, but from what I can see, that tends to be short lived as they can usually re-route
flows once they get a handle on things.
5 - Serious Weather, such as the hurricanes in the Gulf that Ceejay follows.
6- Import/Export -- Imports from Canada, Exports to Mexico and the LNG exports, I view as currency
driven and you should see the changes coming.

So I think, 3 and 4 can catch your "piggy bank by surprise" then
items 1, 2 and 5 if you are not paying reasonable attention, and 6 last to not see
changes coming here.

So, my "real question/issue" is just how quickly does this stuff show up in the charts ???
You can lose a lot of money quickly on an Ng contract if you get caught with your pants down !!!

I am not trying to promote "fundamental trading", just identify/get a better handle on the areas
to watch/understand/follow to help stay off the RR Tracks !!!

My suspicion is that your observations are "right on" looking at the chart.
Thanks, Lee
PS
Will do another post on scrolling/text size, this post was fine for me. I don't want
to get into "hot water" with Mike. I sent him some info, and think I have figured out
how to get things to work for me using Firefox browser.