Hey Lee!!
This is the hardest market to call. The data can be misleading at times which results in wild swings.I usually don't trade on reporting day. I usually go in on Friday morning after the market has time to digest the figures. I trade off of the monthly pivots and S/R levels.
Here's an entry from another blogger from last Friday.
1. Either someone is asleep at the wheel or we are oversupplied by 2.5BCF/day. Am thinking there will be a revision to EIA #'s next week of about 10 BCF. If is correct, you could see $3.5 gas by fall. The market is telling you that they think that the EIA has overstated else we would be at 4 or less by now.
In response to a question as to how he got his data - his response was:
2. I run my own models. It is a full time job so I hate to give away all my work. Anyway, if you look at last yr., comparable week with same #'s of CDD, we had a build of 76 BCF which is 2.71BCF/day of greater supply for this last weeks' report if not revised. According to my work, the build should of been ~85-86BCF. That being with what is known. If there was a couple of LNG tankers that landed and not reported, then I can see the 95 BCF reported by EIA. Otherwise am expecting a 10 BCF correction in next weeks' report. That is the reason why the #'s don't add up.
If you want to follow the thread - here's the URL: http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/SymbolList.aspx?s=HNU&t=LIST
His tag is "Researcher707".
Hope that helps.