The developing tropical system is now just NW of the Northern Yucatan penninsula, tracking just N of W at about 15 mi/h. It still does not appear to have developed a closed surface circulation but appears quite close to doing so. The Hurricane center has raised the probability of it becoming a tropical storm (in the next 48h) to 80%. I would say we will see the system beome tropical storm Don in the next 24 h. The track and intensity forecast continues to be quite uncertain as this is still a small system and weather models don't have enough observed data around and in it to produce a good analysis. The first hurricane hunter mission for pre-Don will be this afternoon and after that model forecasts should improve. Until then my best guess remains strenghtenng to Category 1 with a landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston in about 60h.