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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Quick tropical update, Ng build Est./CJ

Hi Ceejay,

I give up on Ng for today, It is heading south again. I thought it might recover half of this mornings drop but it couldn't get above 4.24 for me.

I did go long at 4.235 but after an hour or so I threw in the towel at 4.24, and luckily make a few bucks as it proceeded to drop right after I closed.

Some other stuff ......
On Nuclear Plants:
I made the comment a bit ago that "possibly some were throttled back" a little to accommodate conventional load followers or peakers to operate efficiently.

I am told NO. Both NRC and Utility. They will be operated at 100% whenever possible.

Some have to be throttled back a little (this time of year) to control the "water temperatures" in the river/bay in those cases where upper limits are in place for the cooling water effluent. Yes, Ng is likely the makeup fuel in most cases, but looking at the numbers this is likely insignificant in the overall scheme of things.

My current take is that "more than a couple" of plants would have to go down to see it in price. It does take a fair amount of Ng to "replace" 1000 Mwe of power generation. I still have to figure out just how much Ng that is !!!!

Refueling is normally/always done in the Spring. Never announced, nor is schedule/expected down time ever published ??

Anyway, can look at what happens in the Spring on this score !!

If price stays down where it is, all things considered, I suspect Ng will drift on down through August as the seasonals indicate.

A good hurricane may produce a trade able bounce in the current trading range. At the moment I doubt we will see Ng north of 4.24 in the short term, and If so, not by much.

Also, margins were "decreased" on the Emini Ng contract today. I didn't check the full contract, it may have gone down as well.

My take on this is that the Exchange expects "less volitility" or "declining price". Either of which, reduce risk and maintain the time they have to close you out or collect a margin call !!!

ANDDDDD, Ng is trying to make a "liar" out of me as it just jumped up to 4.245 !!!!!!

Just some thoughts,