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Re: Quick tropical update, Ng build Est./CJ

Hi Ceejay,

Seems like "Don" is well out of the picture on Ng production. Will bring much needed rain to Southern Texas and it sounds like the Cotton growers are not very happy about that (I have no clue on Cotton), maybe Wayne will comment.

On this:
"I'm sure it will make a liar of us all. And Stargazer is right, NG doesn't care. "

I have ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE as to what Stargazer is talking about.

If he is saying that Ng is "range bound" and in an "overall down trend" as the seasonals also suggest, and that Nothing is likely to alter that unless it is a "Very significant event" then I might understand what he is trying to say.

Otherwise, I have no clue what he means. At least he is not suggesting sell/buy and $80,000 later on a "single contract" the Ng market finally comes back into the suggested line of thinking.

I would guarantee you that if a "healthy hurricane" comes roaring into the Gulf and shuts those platforms down, Ng price will care !!! Whether we see it on day-3, day+1 or day +10, we will see it !!!

I clearly allow that the "High Heat" has not shown up in price as yet, but the supply/demand balance did

Maybe Stargazer thinks he knows something on the production side ??

But you are in as good a position as any to estimate the supply/demand balance. Nothing is changing on the demand side other than the Heat/weather driving the "power burn". and maybe a slight drop in Industrial usage with the economy slowing a bit.

If production stays about the same (and I would think it will slowly increase with the shale stuff) you can be the judge on the weather. It will start cooling down, the power burn will slowly decline and short of a big hurricane, I think price will continue on down for a while. At least through August as the seasonals suggest.

I haven't thought much further than that.