Great commentary and Chart.
Seems like ngas for nov and dec have 'already' priced in the seasonal increase in price as they are 400 and 420 respectfully. So, the roll to the first two months of the heating season has a price increase 'baked' in. NO EASY play. Also, the coming wed to sat 'cool' spell is well discounted by now.
Would "assume" the pros will be/are selling Nov with the expectation ngas remains range bound. Spec play may be to 'guess' breakout, but until such, the pros will sell and collect the futures and option premiums.