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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Nat Gas #2/Lee/Trades/Lee *PIC*
In Response To: Re: Nat Gas #2/Lee/Trades/CO ()

Hi Lee

Yes, COT data, which I much prefer over sentiment 'surveys.' COT players have money on the line behind their vote. In this display,

Green -- Large Reportables
Red -- Commercial Reportables
Olive -- Non Reportables--- small traders
Black -- Open Interest

The vertical range is not fixed, but rather encompasses the extremes over the last decade for each category of trader. With respect to Small Traders, who are small because they do not operate in a productive manner in the markets, there is the conception that they are negative this market; this is not the case. They are above midrange historically and therefore have a positive bias. With respect to this group, note the extreme negative bias in 2001, right at the bottom. Also note the extreme positive bias in 2009, which was followed by the shakeout shortly thereafter; they seem to have a way of always getting it wrong. When this one leaves the station, the little guys will not be onboard; always been that way.

The use of COT is only to get a 'feel' of what each group is doing. The call to action resides in price itself. CO