this is pretty simple Lee
the nearby month not "near by" is the also called the "front" or "spot" month. Since I began posting (not very often) on this site 3 years ago, I have indicated that the cycles pertain to the nearby price, unless a specific contract is mentioned. If you are confused because "folks have been discussing CH12 for some time now" that is hardly my fault. No one here has to discuss only the things that others have started.
One reason to analyze nearby data is that when one pulls up long term charts for historical comparison, the chart will by default be a "nearby" chart. The weekly, monthly, yearly charts all print the nearby price. This site does not even offer a continuous contract chart that I know of, and that is what you would have to look at for these longer trends if you insist on a specific month like CH12.
The point of the original post on Saturday is easy to understand. When I boldly spoke of the grains having reached their tops 8 months ago, I was told by the high volume posters here that I "should stop chasing the holy grail", that no one can know when these trends will change. Some of them tried to castigate my methods and characterize them as something other than what they are. That's fine, they have the right to say whatever they want. I'm all for free speech. However, I then have the right to return to the subject when I have once again been proven right. And that is what I'm doing. People have short memories, so it doesn't seem improper to remind people of the public demonstration put forth on this website once again. And since we are 8 months, EIGHT MONTHS later, and those highs not only have held as I said they would, but the grains have had a big drop, it seems consistent that those who said it could not be done should lose some credibility. They decided to take a verbal stand against the things I was saying. I surely would have lost some standing if the grains had continued higher. I said it at the time "I am not afraid of the pressure of making such a bold claim". I know what cycles can do, and I have been ardently trying for 2 years to demonstrate what can be accomplished. It is others who have the closed mind and make the attacks. I am simply trying to swim against the tide of popular sentiment in terms of market analysis.
I was castigated for saying "the highs are in" when the market was still right near the tops. The markets then drop just as predicted without breaking those tops. Pretty amazing. Corn experiences a drop of 200 cents. THEN, the person who didn't want you to sell at the tops when I said, now says to sell corn. That is the definition of inconsistent and hypocritical. Why is it OK for someone to advise a sale now at $6.50 and not OK to advise to sell when it was $7.60. My subscribers have been short almost this entire drop. He can tell people whatever he wants, but I am allowed to point out his hypocrisy, which I shall do every time he ventures his incoherence in my direction.
Roger
