I can't really hazard a guess as to where Cocoa is going. My system is more reactionary, than predictionary. I am getting a "No Trade" signal on the weekly. Since I initially choose my markets based on the weekly chart, if I have no set up there, it's off my radar.

There are several warning signs that tell me to avoid it.

1. There is a divergence between the 4 week moving average, and the lower Bollinger Band. This indicates too much potential for sideways movement in the next several bars.

2. The price opened with a gap between the price itself, and the 4 bar Moving average. It has been my observation that when this occurs, the price usually fills this gap, before doing anything else. It's not a 100% thing mind you, but I have tried to sell under these conditions, and got eaten alive too many times to try it. I wait until the price and the 4 bar meet before I try to short. My guess, is the reason the price closed closer to the high, is due to the natural tendency to want to fill this gap.

To see what I am seeing, use the 4 bar, 9 bar and 18 bar moving averages, and set your Bollinger bands for 18 and 2