I am saying it needs to rally to fill the gap between the price, and the 4 week MA. Once it hits the 4 week MA, it may return to being a bear, or possible move sideways for a few weeks.

Now, to really confuse you, the price CAN sometimes drop hard, and pull the 4 week MA down to meet the price bar, or close to it. Then you can go short again. However, when I see the divergance between the lower bolinger band, and the 4 week MA, I more often than not see a side ways market. It will drift sideways until it bumps into the 9 week MA, then it will continue down. However, if it crosses it, and there is a continued divergence between the 4 week MA and the lower Bollinger band, then you may be looking at an actual correction. Sometimes there is a small set up that allows a contrarian trade to be made against the trend.

The next test is the 18 week MA. It may bump into that, and then the correction will be over, and the original trend restored, OR it may cross the 18 Week MA, and a new bullish trend may be in play.

If it crosses over, I have a short "Pre trade" that I can make that takes me almost up to the upper Bollinger band. I exit there with a small profit. Then I have to wait till it corrects for the real bull trend to start.

All I can know for sure now, is it's not stable enough to risk a trade on. I have no clear set up, so I sit on the side.

The daily chart tomorrow will help guide me if I decide to risk a trade here (which would be against my rules because of the divergence on the weekly chart). If i feel like taking the gamble, I can use the same method, on faster time frames to try and catch the drop if it's going to be a bear tomorrow.
\
The set up would be the price opening under the 4 day MA, with both the 4 day and the lower bollinger band staying on the same angle they are now. I would need similar patterns confirming this on my 30 minute, 10 minute and 3 minute charts.

If I have that, and I am set up to be fast on the draw, there may be a bearish day trade in the making for tomorrow. That gap on the weekly chart will want to be filled, so it would be risky. Strictly a quick in, and out thing, trying to snag $25.00 or so.

Watch the angles between the Weekly MAs and the lower Bollinger band. That will give you a clue as to what to do.

My attitude is that i would rather miss a winning trade, than be stuck in a loser. Because of this, i will sit this out untill I get a better set up that is more is a sure thing.

Now, next week, if the 4 week MA points on a downward angle, and the lower BB stays on it's downward angle, so the two are converging and the price opens really close but not above the 4 week moving average, that is my set up to continue being short. Sugar is making a much better set up right now, than Cocoa.e
What this method does, is it gives me a lot of little low risk wins, while putting my in place so I am in position to catch bigger daily moves with a fair amount of reliability. I just mechanically take every set up I see, feel relife that my small wins were trades that didn't ding my account as losses, and enjoy the big ones I catch by accident (and those are the ones that make it all worth it).

Technically i could use it to catch larger trends as well, but I prefer not to risk being in the market while I am sleeping. I will save that stuff for when I have a 100K account.

The exits on divergence between the 4 bar MA and the Bollinger band gets me out of markets a lot closer to the top than other methods I have used in the past. It also gets me out with much smaller losses when trades go bad because that divergence is often the very first sign of trouble.

I actually wrote an entire course manual on the method...although I just gave the core of it away right here.