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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

NatGas ?? Build est, Wx/Ceejay

Hi Ceejay,

Only build estimate so far for tomorrow's EIA report so far, came out a bit after Noon and price immediately shot up ??

Was the Dow Jones Newswire estimate that does eventually show up every week the day before report.


DJ Projected 48 , Range Low 43 Mid 47 High 55

If the report comes in this high, it should be quite bearish !!!???

The whole price behavior from 12:30 pm est. on kind of escapes me, unless one assumes there is a lot of uncertainty in just what tomorrow may really bring. About an hour or so later, price fell right off again !!!???

If I guess, "weak shorts closed out" due to uncertainty on such a high number, or something is stewing with the weather ???
- But then again, price fell right back later ??

I was short from 4.02 and lowered my stop this morning when price started back up. I should have just closed out at 3.9 or so , had plenty of time/chance to do it !!!! BUTTTT, lowered my stop to 3.93 never expecting it to bounce that high !!!

OH, WELL !!! Still was a decent trade !!!

Wouldn't mind being short before tomorrow's report since if that high injection number holds, price should "tank" !!!
Have to "stew on it". Could easily lose the gain on last trade but I don't think Ng price is finished going down unless you find a Hurricane ready to cruse into the Gulf !!!!

So, maybe you can find time to post an update on the weather ????

I'll have to ask Trades if he will take a look at his chart, but I really don't think that things have changed enough for him to alter his "Ng is a 'sick puppy' opinion" ??? Won't hurt to ask, his "eyes" on any chart are MUCH BETTER THAN MINE !!!!!

Thanks, Lee