I conked out Thurs. morning before the report. I had stayed up to see how the trading went overnight (can move a fair amount), but I was not completely sure whether I would stay in into the report or not.
Was short 2 Emini contracts 3.925 and 3.92 and it had traded down to about 3.905. I was considering taking a chance on not "blowing through" the stop should it go up but as it turned out I was stopped out on that bump up at 9.08 am. At that point, I called it quits !!!
Would have been blown out on that spike up when the report came out anyway !!
I really did not think the market would go "too high" and was considering staying short into the report. Would have been OK, but only for about an hour anyway !! As the "world has turned" I am presently "better off" having gotten out !!!
What time time did the chart/map become available that you mention:
"Just when the chart that depicted the new forecast position appeared (became available on-line), the september NG contact jumped about 2%. "
Looking at the price chart, it had to be around noon, or 2:30pm est. I'm curious because that "dip after the report" only lasted about an hour and a half before it popped right back up.
I had a suspicion that last weeks number was not realistic, I think this weeks higher number corrected for some of that, keeping in mind that it was also based on the "dip stick readings" of storage as of Friday 8/12 and the Temps. were still pretty high. I have to do a better job of keeping track of your Wx data.
Right now it looks like the Seasonal downtrend is still in place on price but that the recent "hurricane possibilities" may have "thrown a scare" into the market and price has stabilized in a "new short term trading range". Right now, it looks like it will be constrained in the 3.91/3.92 to 3.96 range ??
Will be interesting to see how things develop going forward as the path/strength of those storms evolve !!!???
Keep in mind that the "seasonal data" Trades has posted in the past, show:
Natural Gas Futures Continuous Contract Seasonality
Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of September 2 and a sell date of October 20, investors have benefited from a total return of 56.09% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.
So, 7/10 gives pretty good "odds" !!! Worth keeping in mind !!!!